The Future of 3D?

# 1 28-11-2007 , 07:13 AM

Jr.Who

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Hey guys,

What do you think will happen in the future to the 3D industry? Right now the 4 major apps are Maya, Max, Lightwave, and XSI (correct me if I'm wrong). I would like to see Autodesk start merging their products, as they have way too many. I'm looking at the list and I see 15 separate AutoCAD products. There's got to be a reason for this.

I counted over 60 apps. Why anyone would do this just blows me away. It would be cool if Autodesk combined Max, Maya, MotionBuilder, and even Mudbox (MMMM?), to create the perfect, all-in-one workflow, which would, as Kurt always says, make our lives so much easier. Maybe they could even do the same to all their effects/compositing software (Fire, Flame, Flint, Toxik, Smoke, etc. (note that I don't know anything about these products)).

Could we see unbiased renderers (like Maxwell) render at incredibly fast speeds, thus replacing mental ray?

What I see in the future is the new MMMM being the at the top of the chain, with other new, innovative competitors right behind them (modo is a good example).

Who knows, though, since Autodesk keeps eating up companies faster than they can launch out products (watch out Luxology, e-on, and Next Limit user added image

).

-Jr.Who
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# 2 28-11-2007 , 08:49 AM

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The different Autocad products have differing applications within design, they also offer differing price points due to the differing options avialable, which is a help for the differing size of companies and the applications they use.

Theres also the problem if they added everything what architecture would they use, node based, additive, how much would they strip away with regards to programming, custamizability etc?? Also what would they dump and keep? Its a biggie, also think of the price of such an application, its also shoe horning people into a workflow/app they might not like.

I feel a better way to go would be to keep the apps sepperate, but maybe offer a suite (as adobe) with a file extension that crosses the lot, without any problems (I know theres fbx but I think a more rounded solution could be created, especially for sculpting apps)

I personally like going form maya to say Zbrush (and now motionbuilder) as it feels like i'm using the tool for the job and not a jack of all trades (a 14mm spanners always going to be easier to use than a multi adjustable one)

Or what I feel would be benificial would be you buy the basic maya, then get bolt ons for the parts you need, Ncloth if you want, fluids, hair etc etc, instead of having a big difference beteen the 2 price points for some things that a freelancer might need say cloth and parts they might not use such as fluids.

I think that faster rendering like maxwell would probably come with streamlining the coding and with faster CPU's although as that imporves so will Mental rays render time! so for a bit I think it will be horses for courses on that one.

Good discussion, I hope it wont end up as an autodesk complaining thread.

edit - What I see is better realtime rendering for the viewports that supports raytracing etc etc, that would be a great addition.

"No pressure, no diamonds" Thomas Carlyle

Last edited by gster123; 28-11-2007 at 08:53 AM.

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# 3 28-11-2007 , 09:19 AM

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yeah - i tend to agree with gster - i think it's good that you have a variety of different applications as it leads to competition between companies and having choice as to how you achieve something is good.

i think compatibility is a bigger issue - i'm really looking forward to getting my hands on z brush so i can experience a different method of modeling.

yeah - good topic. user added image

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# 4 28-11-2007 , 09:38 AM

Jr.Who

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Originally posted by gster123
The different Autocad products have differing applications within design, they also offer differing price points due to the differing options avialable, which is a help for the differing size of companies and the applications they use.…

Originally Posted by

So it's pretty much like how they have Maya Complete and Unlimited?

Originally posted by gster123
I personally like going form maya to say Zbrush (and now motionbuilder) as it feels like i'm using the tool for the job and not a jack of all trades…

Originally Posted by

True, but all-in-one packages like modo are becoming quite popular, and a lot of people say that it's easier to have them combined.

Originally posted by gster123
Or what I feel would be benificial would be you buy the basic maya, then get bolt ons for the parts you need…

Originally Posted by

It sounds like a cool idea, but not many apps are like that nowadays.

Originally posted by gster123
I think that faster rendering like maxwell would probably come with streamlining the coding and with faster CPU's although as that imporves so will Mental rays render time! so for a bit I think it will be horses for courses on that one.

…

edit - What I see is better realtime rendering for the viewports that supports raytracing etc etc, that would be a great addition.

Originally Posted by

That would be too awesome. Could we see the software render replacing the viewport (for realtime rendering), mental ray replacing what SW render is now, and Maxwell replacing what mr is now?

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# 5 28-11-2007 , 10:22 AM

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Well, this all sounds very cool, but do you realize how much money Autodesk would be chucking out the window?

Right now you can get a copy of Maya Unlim, for about 6K and Max for about 4K, now if they were to combine these programs (and still make as much money as before) they would have to charge about 10K.... then they will have to add to the price to Justify all the work they would have to of done to combine the two apps... so I'm guessing the price would be some where around... 12-13K. Now i for one will not be ponying up that sort of cash every 6-12 months. Plus Autodesk would have about half of it's market in uproar because they need to learn a new interface.

Well, lets not look at it for the price for a minute. Do you know how much stuff would thrown out? Just so they could fit the 2 apps together.

Then there's the case of all the different CAD programs they offer. Like mentioned before each one is kitted out for a different purpose. One may be for Engineering, and the other for Architecture, and another for mapping accurate Geological 3D ground maps. Each one would operate differently, and utilize a completely different tool set. If you were to combine this programs, again autodesk would have to up their price, and again they would probably loose most of their business... because an Engineer, doesn't want to spend thousands on an App, that he used to spend only hundreds on, just because there's a ton of (to him) useless tools added on, that he will never use.... PLUS with such an elaborate tool set, and artist would spend 50% of his time wadding through menus trying to find a tool that used to be Macroed to his key board.

I don't know. It just seems to be so much hassle and pain, and a probable market loss for autodesk, so much so i don't think they'll do it.

Anyhow, Good topic user added image

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Last edited by Mayaniac; 28-11-2007 at 10:29 AM.

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# 6 28-11-2007 , 12:00 PM

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Originally posted by Mayaniac
Well, this all sounds very cool, but do you realize how much money Autodesk would be chucking out the window?

Right now you can get a copy of Maya Unlim, for about 6K and Max for about 4K, now if they were to combine these programs (and still make as much money as before) they would have to charge about 10K.... then they will have to add to the price to Justify all the work they would have to of done to combine the two apps... so I'm guessing the price would be some where around... 12-13K. Now i for one will not be ponying up that sort of cash every 6-12 months.

Originally Posted by

Not really. Let's say there are 100 Max users and 100 Maya users, in the world:
100 x $6,000 = $600,000
100 x $4,000 = $400,000
$600,000 + $400,000 = $1,000,000

Now, if you charge $12,000:
200 x $12,000 = $2,400,000

And if you charge $6,000 (for the combined products):
200 x $6,000 = $1,200,000

Originally posted by Mayaniac
Plus Autodesk would have about half of it's market in uproar because they need to learn a new interface.

Well, lets not look at it for the price for a minute. Do you know how much stuff would thrown out? Just so they could fit the 2 apps together.

Originally Posted by

Remember when people complained about the new Maya 8 interface when it came out? How many 8 (or '08) users do you see, that have used it for a while, complaining about it now?

Would they really need to throw that much stuff out? Plus, with more people working on it, would it be more than what would be added/fixed?

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# 7 28-11-2007 , 12:26 PM

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Originally posted by Jr.Who

True, but all-in-one packages like modo are becoming quite popular, and a lot of people say that it's easier to have them combined.
?

Originally Posted by

I didnt really mean like modo, thats a different kettle of fish as it dosnt have a lot of the functionality that maya has, so, for me its a great modeling/texturing tool, but animation/rigging its lacking (I know you can do some animation in there but not too sure of rigging) so it's not really an all in one.

Think of the larning curve if you had, say maya+Zbrush+realflow+motionbuilder+endorphin all in one, hit one wrong thing and you'll be right in the poop, let alone the workflows for each part of it, it would be too unruley, unless they make the "make cool" button, haha!

It would be nice but I think that a dedicated app would still be the best for the job (and would help to keep the development of the technology going) and a package of the apps to suit the individual/studio.

I also think that autodesk will keep the two (max/maya) sepperate but take bits form one to the other (like the outliner has gone to Max 2008, its called the scene tree I think, with one of the autodesk guys sayin it takes getting used to for a maxer) as they have different markets, users and communities, and uses.

I think that if they made them both (or all the apps) into one then there would parbably be a slow down in development, as whos pushing them? More companys would bring out other softwares/plugins to bridge the gaps.

On the Autocad stuff, I think that they have different customer bases, such as product design/ Architecture, mechanical, visulisation etc, hence the lot of them.

On the viewport rendering it wont be done with CPU cycles it will be GPU, hence the realtime, like I think that maxwell will probably have its day, IF it gets faster for animation, but then again I dont think that MR will be standing still to let it happen, so only ime will tell on that one.

Heres as link for some GPU rendering

https://www.lightwork.com/technology/hardware.htm

"No pressure, no diamonds" Thomas Carlyle

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# 8 28-11-2007 , 03:52 PM

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I think Maya will always lead the way in 3D and i see that in the past year or so ZBrush has gotten way popular, so I think in the future those 2 programs will rule them all.

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# 9 28-11-2007 , 05:14 PM

As Zbrushiac sounds stupid!
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Originally posted by Jr.Who
Not really. Let's say there are 100 Max users and 100 Maya users, in the world:
100 x $6,000 = $600,000
100 x $4,000 = $400,000
$600,000 + $400,000 = $1,000,000

Now, if you charge $12,000:
200 x $12,000 = $2,400,000

And if you charge $6,000 (for the combined products):
200 x $6,000 = $1,200,000

Remember when people complained about the new Maya 8 interface when it came out? How many 8 (or '08) users do you see, that have used it for a while, complaining about it now?

Would they really need to throw that much stuff out? Plus, with more people working on it, would it be more than what would be added/fixed?

Originally Posted by

Well, your right about the money, but were not just talking about the reorganization of a couple of menu sets. Were talking the difference between Maya and Max.

You know as well as i that these two applications are rigged together completely different. The way in which you accomplish tasks in one is completely different to the other.

I know of plenty of people that have made the switch to one from the other, and they all say (no matter which way they go) it's like learning from scratch all over again. Of course they are familiar with the concepts, but being able to achieve them is a completely different story, and requires time and patients.

Now your telling me you could (after using Maya for years) open up Max and achieve the same results (given you had no prior encounters with this software) ???
Now you would probably say.. well no, nut give me a couple of weeks..... Could you imagine what this would do to studios that ran on Maya? Of course it would be the same if it were to go the other way, if Max user were suddenly thrust into Maya.

Though, Autodesk could try to even it out and produce a Hybrid UI. Well, that would just leave every 3D artist in carper for a couple of months.

The only cure i could see, would be a UI toggle switch. This would allow you to switch from one UI to the other. Allowing you the choice to stay with the UI your most comfortable with.

Though, these are just my thoughts, and I'm sure if it came to it i would be the first to learn the new UI... As I'm not one to be left behind.

Anyhow, this is a great topic, and it sure is nice to have a good rant.... user added image

Last edited by Mayaniac; 28-11-2007 at 05:20 PM.

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# 10 29-11-2007 , 01:10 AM

Jr.Who

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Yeah, you are right gster. Let's just hope that they simplify this stuff so that it can be done. user added image

Originally posted by Mayaniac
Well, your right about the money, but were not just talking about the reorganization of a couple of menu sets. Were talking the difference between Maya and Max.…

Originally Posted by

Autodesk is making changes to Max and Maya to prepare the user for the transition. Hopefully, they keep taking more steps towards it, so that it will be easier to transition.

Originally posted by Mayaniac
The only cure i could see, would be a UI toggle switch. This would allow you to switch from one UI to the other. Allowing you the choice to stay with the UI your most comfortable with.

Originally Posted by

Isn't there something like that in MotionBuilder? It's a great idea for a first step, especially to get the user used to how the new setup would look and feel.

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# 11 29-11-2007 , 01:22 AM

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I dont think that they will merge the two, but I do think that they will "standardise" parts of the UI's as well as bring tools from one to the other (which according to a friend thats been in CAD for a number of years they do with the CAD packages they took over).

The core structures of the 2 softwares are completly different in how they work, hence making them inito one app would be a nightmare. At a Autodesk product demo there was no indication of any merger of the two, they even described the differing markets they have and the users for each of the apps.

The UI is just the front end, the way the data is handled/communicated is in a completly different. And well I do think that if they combine the two there going to peeve a lot of the studios who dedicate as lot of time and money into developing plug ins for the maya core, if they went with the maya core then it would peve off Max users.

As for motion builder you can change the keyboard set up to different softwares.

"No pressure, no diamonds" Thomas Carlyle

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# 12 30-11-2007 , 10:58 PM

Jr.Who

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How about having a feature like ZB, where we can have millions of polys in a scene? Will that be coming soon, or is it too far away?

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# 13 01-12-2007 , 07:50 AM

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Originally posted by Jr.Who
How about having a feature like ZB, where we can have millions of polys in a scene? Will that be coming soon, or is it too far away?

Originally Posted by

Now i think that would be awesome.

Maybe even having multi-res layers, so you could go up and down in resolution, like in ZB.

Also you should have it so you could render on a Hi res and but have it in the scene in Lo-res..... Like you can do now in Mental Ray, only it restored the detail of the Hi-res Subdivision layer.

Now i don't think they would have to incorporate Zb into Maya to achieve this.... as other applications have already installed this feature.... such as Blender... so it's very possible, and would be a cool feature to see in the coming instalments.

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# 14 01-12-2007 , 11:16 AM

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Speaking of which, how about the reduce tool actually working. Then we wouldn't have to worry about our history when we smooth our meshes.

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# 15 02-12-2007 , 11:10 PM

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haha, yeah, I really thought that in 2008 autodesk would have pushed the artisan/painting tools a bit more, I tried the reduce tool to see what the eimporvements were, its still got some way to go, Zbrush can reconstruct subdivisions really well if you delete the lower mesh.

Think it might be a bit far away to be honest as for Zbrush to display the polys it uses its "2.5d" technology, where as maya uses 3d to draw on the screen the polys, so it might be a push to get it into maya.

I always thought that making custom paint effects, in an easy process, would be great.

"No pressure, no diamonds" Thomas Carlyle

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